(To be clear: This is Ahmad's speculation, not news. It should also be noted that the year-old iPhone 4 just became the best-selling phone in the world. So the once-a-year release strategy seems to be working just fine.)
Ahmad also thinks Apple will soon release a "cheap" iPhone priced in the $300 range (before subsidies) to fight off cheaper competition.
[But wait--isn't the 3GS already priced in this range? It now sells for $50 after carrier subsidies with a two-year contract.]
Ahmad also thinks Apple's new iCloudstrategy will lead to another round of earnings estimate increases.
So why is Apple's stock dead in the water?
Concerns about the company's leadership in a post-Steve Jobs era, says Ahmad.
But he's sticking with his $445 price target.
In other news, Ahmad thinks RIM,Nokia, and other formerly household names are totally screwed. RIM's the new Nokia, he says:
On Nokia (Sell, PT €3.70), our concerns centre on Android proliferation in Nokia's bread-and-butter low- to mid-end portfolio and our view that Apple will launch a $300 iPhone; Nokia's transition period, "end of lifing" Symbian, and employee morale; and the non-exclusive nature of Microsoftdeal. We think street estimates for next two years do not reflect margin, ASP and market share pressure that the company will continue to face.
We remain sellers of RIMM (hardware margins, services ARPU [Average Revenue Per User] and Playbook disappoints), which we coined the "new Nokia" in January 2010, Motorola Mobility (tablet sales to disappoint, smartphone pricing pressure), MediaTek (2G business commoditising, 3G behind curve) and STM (ST-Ericsson to remain loss making in 2011–13), as we expect expectations on these stocks to disappoint during the next 12 months.
We also remain sellers of Cisco given increased competition across portfolio and a time-
consuming restructuring programme.
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